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Chris Giles on Central Banks

‘Chris Giles on Central Banks’ is the latest weekly newsletter (sign up here) from the Financial Times. Written by economics commentator and former economics editor Chris Giles, it is an essential guide to money, interest rates, inflation and what central banks are thinking.

The newsletter dissects the current trends, discussing the latest thinking on economics relevant to central banking. It provides in depth commentary on the big themes, generating engagement with readers, as well as linking to other central banking stories on FT.com and elsewhere.

  • Tuesday, 31 December, 2024
    Central banks
    Rising concerns about economic prospects for 2025 Premium content

    The year no longer appears likely to bring leading economies into a steady state

    A digital illustration of a rainbow in a pot of gold
  • Tuesday, 17 December, 2024
    Global inflation
    Five central banking lessons for 2024 Premium content

    Advanced economy officials have had a good year, but not quite a vintage one

    Montage including photos of Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey
  • Tuesday, 10 December, 2024
    Central banks
    Can robots replace humans in monetary policy? Premium content

    No, but machines are making some serious progress

    A cleaning robot beside a euro currency symbol in the atrium of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany
  • Tuesday, 3 December, 2024
    European Central Bank
    Europe lacks a monetary response to Trump Premium content

    Uncertain inflationary effects leave the ECB hoping for the best

    Montage of ECB president Christine Lagarde and a euro symbol
  • Tuesday, 26 November, 2024
    UK inflation
    Financial markets do not trust the BoE to deliver low inflation Premium content

    They expect UK inflation to average around 3%, much higher than the US, Germany or France

    Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey
  • Tuesday, 19 November, 2024
    Global trade
    Tariffs and taxes are not very inflationary Premium content

    Households will pay, but probably not through much higher prices

    A montage of the images of Donald Trump, the Federal Reserve building and a chart
  • Tuesday, 5 November, 2024
    US presidential election 2024
    Can economics model Trump? Premium content

    Economists are trying to calibrate a Republican victory and finding it extremely difficult

    Donald Trump sits inside a garbage truck, wearing a high-vis vest, on tarmac at an airport in Green Bay, Wisconsin, US
  • Tuesday, 29 October, 2024
    Monetary policy
    The elusive pivot from monetary to fiscal tightening Premium content

    IMF wants lower interest rates and government deficits. That looks unlikely

    US Fed chair Jay Powell and UK chancellor Rachel Reeves chat before the start of an IMF meeting in Washington, DC
  • Tuesday, 22 October, 2024
    Gilts
    Liz Truss’s mini-Budget: lessons from a moronic episode Premium content

    Central banks should not deny they will act in a crisis and Labour’s Budget is not another Truss moment

    Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng in the House of Commons in 2022
  • Tuesday, 15 October, 2024
    Central banks
    American interest rates need to rise Premium content

    Lessons for the US from the Brazilian canary in the coal mine

    Shoppers at a grocery store in Rio de Janeiro
  • Tuesday, 8 October, 2024
    US economy
    US consumers leave Europeans in their wake Premium content

    What lies behind the remarkable post-pandemic US consumption recovery?

    Shoppers carry bags from Selfridges department store and Louis Vuitton in central London
  • Tuesday, 1 October, 2024
    Monetary policy
    Pace of rate cuts is uncertain Premium content

    Central banks are in cutting mode — but how fast they will lower interest rates remains unclear

    Montage with photos of Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey
  • Tuesday, 24 September, 2024
    Central banks
    Three questions for Jay Powell Premium content

    The Fed went all out last week. The aftershocks of the jumbo cut are still reverberating

    Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell
  • Tuesday, 17 September, 2024
    Chris Giles
    A crisis of confidence at the Fed Premium content

    Its self doubt comes in a decisive week for central banks

    Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell
  • Tuesday, 10 September, 2024
    Federal Reserve
    The Trumponomics problem for the Fed Premium content

    Tariffs, deportation and fiscal incontinence would challenge the central bank, while its independence could be under threat

    A lawn sign in opposition to former president and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in Beverly Hills, Michigan
  • Tuesday, 3 September, 2024
    Central banks
    Why Kamala Harris’s price proposals could be damaging for the US economy Premium content

    Presidential candidate’s economic plan is good politics but its impact is likely to be underwhelming

    A close-up image  of a pair of trainers with the words “Harris for president” on them
  • Tuesday, 27 August, 2024
    Monetary policy
    Lessons in monetary transmission Premium content

    At Jackson Hole, central bankers offered different views about the tools of their trade

    Grand Teton National Park, where central bankers gathered this week for the annual Jackson Hole symposium
  • Tuesday, 20 August, 2024
    Central banks
    The legacy of a thin market crash Premium content

    Ahead of Jackson Hole, August’s financial turmoil and feverish response now look a little silly

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
  • Tuesday, 13 August, 2024
    US presidential election 2024
    Decoding Harris and Trump on inflation Premium content

    The question is whether we judge their words seriously or literally

    Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
  • Tuesday, 6 August, 2024
    Central banks
    Seven lessons from three central bank meetings Premium content

    The BoJ raised rates, the Fed was on hold and the BoE cut and then it all went wrong

  • Tuesday, 30 July, 2024
    Global inflation
    Learning to trust the forecasts Premium content

    Central bank inflation forecasts have become much more accurate, so why are they still in the doghouse?

    A montage of a card payment machine and a chart
  • Tuesday, 23 July, 2024
    Central banks
    How will the Fed and ECB change their monetary strategies? Premium content

    The fate of FAIT and a fait accompli

    A photo showing US dollar bills in a pile
  • Tuesday, 16 July, 2024
    US inflation
    ’Tis the season to be happy (about US inflation) Premium content

    Latest figures put Fed on a glide path towards monetary easing

    Fed chair Jay Powell
  • Tuesday, 9 July, 2024
    Central banks
    When inflation models go wrong Premium content

    Academic work on display at the ECB forum failed sniff and scale tests

    A view of Sintra in Portugal
  • Tuesday, 2 July, 2024
    Central banks
    Were central bankers lucky or smart in reducing inflation? Premium content

    The BIS says ‘smart’ but the evidence is patchy

    FT montage of central bank buildings
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