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Michael Pettis

  • Tuesday, 10 December, 2024
    Markets InsightGlobal trade
    Tariffs are a misunderstood tool

    Debate over trade strategy has become an ideological litmus test in which few are willing to acknowledge nuance

    Port of Los Angeles
  • Tuesday, 28 May, 2024
    German economy
    No, trade surpluses aren’t caused by comparative advantage

    Revisiting Ricardo

  • Monday, 29 April, 2024
    Markets InsightChinese trade
    China’s problem is excess savings, not too much capacity

    Policymakers on either side of bitter trade dispute seem to confuse two issues

    Shipping containers in Shanghai
  • Wednesday, 20 December, 2023
    Global Economy
    China’s debt isn’t the problem

    It is a symptom of the problem

  • Tuesday, 7 November, 2023
    Markets InsightChinese economy
    The global constraints to Chinese growth

    Many more years of high economic expansion are only possible if the country restructures to boost domestic consumption

    A worker operates machines at a texile factory in Nantong, in eastern China’s Jiangsu province
  • Thursday, 27 July, 2023
    Markets InsightUS economy
    Why US debt will continue to rise

    The government must eliminate downward pressure on demand by reversing policies that favour income inequality

    A pedestrian passes the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington
  • Wednesday, 7 June, 2023
    Global trade
    A (very short) history of global reserve currencies

    Keynes knew

  • Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
    Markets InsightChinese business & finance
    China’s difficult choices as export growth slows

    Trade surplus contraction must be balanced by a cut in the gap between domestic savings and investment

    Workers prepare a container at the port in Qingdao, China’s eastern Shandong province
  • Wednesday, 27 April, 2022
    Foreign exchange
    Will the renminbi depreciation actually boost Chinese growth?

    Probably not. Here’s why.

  • Wednesday, 20 April, 2022
    Global Economy
    China’s never-ending story

    The Chinese economy still needs demand-side support, not more supply-side support

  • Tuesday, 18 January, 2022
    Markets InsightChinese politics & policy
    China’s record trade gap a symptom of struggle to rebalance its economy

    Surpluses will continue as Beijing struggles to rein in burgeoning debt and increase domestic consumption

    Containers stacked at a port in Qingdao, China
  • Monday, 2 August, 2021
    Markets InsightChinese economy
    Why it might be good for China if foreign investors are wary

    Regulators should be more worried by too much buying of its stocks and bonds than by too little

    A Chinese flag and a renminbi note
  • Sunday, 22 November, 2020
    Chinese economy
    Xi’s aim to double China’s economy is a fantasy

    The idea that GDP can be twice as big in 2035 faces two significant obstacles: demography and politics

    Warehouse employees work in Hengyang, Hunan province. A declining working population requires that the pace of the decline in productivity drops by nearly two-thirds if China is to double GDP by 2035
  • Friday, 18 September, 2020
    News in-depthFT Alphaville
    Why China’s recovery is not what it seems

    Michael Pettis argues imbalances will continue to set China back unless retail sales once again begin to outpace industrial production.

  • Tuesday, 25 August, 2020
    FT AlphavilleChinese economy
    The problems with China’s “Dual Circulation” economic model

    When it comes to the future of the Chinese economy, Beijing has a difficult choice to make.

  • Thursday, 18 June, 2020
    Free LunchMartin Sandbu
    Savings gluts and investment droughts Premium content

    How global macroeconomic asymmetries reflect homespun economic problems

  • Wednesday, 27 May, 2020
    Robert Armstrong
    Business will be the loser in the US-China fight

    Both nations are indispensable, so companies face a two-track world

    web_Chinese US business wars
  • Sunday, 26 April, 2020
    China economic slowdown
    China’s economy can only grow with more state control not less

    Beijing’s repeated pledges to shrink the state are both empty and impossible

    Workers maintain Wuzuohe Bridge in Bijie, Guizhou province. China is massively overinvested in infrastructure
  • Monday, 13 January, 2020
    Markets InsightEquity valuation
    Fundamentals simply do not matter in China’s stock markets

    It is wrong to assume that prices reflect a genuine ‘view’ about growth prospects

    A pedestrian stands in front of an electronic ticker board and a screen displaying stock figures outside the Exchange Square complex, which houses the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, in Hong Kong, China, on Monday, Sept. 16, 2019. The Hong Kong bourse's unsolicited takeover bid for the London Stock Exchange Group Plc was greeted with a scathing rejection and the exchange suffered a further humiliation when China praised the rebuff as well. Photographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg
  • Sunday, 10 November, 2019
    Chinese business & finance
    Opening up to foreign capital would be a mixed blessing for China

    This would be a dangerous way of trying to fix an unstable banking system

    A pedestrian passes in front of a Baoshang Bank Co. branch in Beijing, China, on Tuesday, May 28, 2019. A Bloomberg index of Hong Kong-listed Chinese banks is set for its biggest monthly loss this year after regulators assumed control of Baoshang on Friday citing "serious" credit risks. Photographer: Giulia Marchi/Bloomberg
  • Wednesday, 11 July, 2018
    Central banks
    The 'marginal buyers' in credit are neither marginal nor buyers
    The 'marginal buyers' in credit are neither marginal nor buyers
  • Monday, 25 June, 2018
    FT AlphavilleDan McCrum
    The return of capital controls
    The return of capital controls
  • Thursday, 12 April, 2018
    FT AlphavilleGlobal trade
    Tariffs increase savings in a world already drowsy with too much savings
    Tariffs increase savings in a world already drowsy with too much savings
  • Tuesday, 6 March, 2018
    FT AlphavilleMatthew C Klein
    China’s household debt problem
  • Monday, 5 March, 2018
    FT AlphavilleDan McCrum
    Someone is wrong on the internet, accounting identity edition
    Someone is wrong on the internet, accounting identity edition
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