Republican Senate majority grows with Montana win

Republicans’ majority in the US Senate swelled on Wednesday, after the party flipped a third seat previously controlled by Democrats.

Jon Tester, the three-term Democratic incumbent in Montana, lost to Tim Sheehy, a wealthy businessman and former Navy Seal. West Virginia was first to flip earlier in the night on Tuesday, following a crushing victory by governor Jim Justice over Democratic candidate Glenn Elliott. Republicans picked up another seat in Ohio, with the ousting of Senate veteran Sherrod Brown.

Republicans now have 52 seats in the 100-person upper chamber, although not all the races have yet been called.

Reported results for Montana Senate election
CandidatePartyVotesShare (%)
Tim Sheehy ✔Republican265,22052.8
Jon Tester*Democratic227,98845.4
Sid DaoudLibertarian5,5861.1
Robert BarbGreen3,1410.6
Source: Associated Press. Data as of 11.26am on November 6 GMT with 620 of 731 precincts reporting and approximately 84.8% of expected votes counted. *Incumbent.

S&P 500 banks index hits record high on soft regulation hopes under Trump

Wall Street’s biggest bank stocks were on track to close at a record high following the news of Donald Trump’s electoral victory and expectations he would lower taxes and be softer on sector regulation than President Joe Biden.

The S&P 500 Banks index soared 10.2 per cent to an intraday peak in Wednesday trading. It was the index’s biggest daily gain since November 9 2020, the first trading session after that year’s election race was called for Biden.

Line chart of  showing S&P 500 Banks Index on track to close at all-time high

Within the index, shares of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase were among those on course to close at record highs. They were up 12.1 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively.

The KBW regional banks index soared to a level last seen in February 2022, indicating that the market gains were not restricted to big banks. The gauge has now recouped its decline since the regional banking crisis of early 2023.

US renewable energy stocks sink as Trump win clouds sector outlook

Shares in several renewable energy companies plunged on growing investor concerns about the threat a Trump presidency could pose for the clean energy sector.

Solar technology stocks were nursing double-digit declines shortly after midday on Wednesday. Shares in Sunrun were down 26.2 per cent, SolarEdge tumbled 19.2 per cent, Enphase Energy dropped 16.6 per cent and First Solar fell 10.7 per cent.

Shares in one of the country’s largest renewable energy developers, AES Corp, were down 9.5 per cent.

Donald Trump has blasted Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and promised to get rid of federal green subsidies, a move that would threaten the country’s efforts to become a renewable energy superpower that could compete with China.

Harris expected to concede election to Trump in 4pm ET address

Kamala Harris is expected to concede her election loss to Donald Trump at 4pm Eastern time on Wednesday on the campus of Howard University in Washington, DC.

The White House confirmed on Wednesday morning that Harris would speak at her alma mater later in the day.

Harris had originally been expected to address thousands of supporters at an election night party at the historically Black college on election night, but decided not to appear as votes were counted and her paths to victory narrowed.

European stocks end the day lower over investor trade war fears

European stocks ended the day lower as investors feared a full-blown trade war between the US and China and risks for EU exports in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election.

The region-wide Stoxx Europe 600 shed 0.6 per cent, dragged down by the autos and renewables industry. German car stocks had a rough day, with companies such as BMW and Volkswagen down 6.3 per cent and 5.1 per cent, respectively. Frankfurt's Dax closed 1 per cent lower.

London's FTSE 100 shed 0.1 per cent, while Paris's Cac 40 was down 0.6 per cent.

Saudi Arabia’s crown prince speaks with Trump, looks to boost ‘historic and strategic’ ties

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has spoken by telephone with Donald Trump to congratulate him on his victory in the US election.

The kingdom’s de facto ruler said on Wednesday his country was looking forward to deepening its “historic and strategic” ties with the US under Trump, who made his first foreign trip to Riyadh in his first term.

Saudi and American officials have been in talks over signing a defence pact that would have seen the US offering a stronger security commitment to defend Saudi Arabia and access to American nuclear technology in exchange for the kingdom normalising its relations with Israel.

Saudi Arabia has been critical of Israel’s conduct in its war against Hamas, however, and now says there would be no normalisation without establishing an independent Palestinian state.

Netanyahu holds ‘warm and heartfelt’ call with Trump

Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with US president-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday and congratulated him on his landslide victory in the US general election, according to the Israeli prime minister’s office. 

“The two agreed to work together for Israel’s security . . .[and] also discussed the Iranian threat,” the statement added. There was no immediate comment from the Trump campaign about the details of the call, which the Israeli side described as “warm and heartfelt”. 

The Israeli premier had barely concealed his preference for the Republican candidate amid public clashes in recent months with the current US administration of Joe Biden over wartime policy in Gaza, and travelled to Florida to meet Trump in the summer after a White House meeting with Biden.

Betting groups prevail over pollsters with another correct election call

US political betting groups are boasting of having outdone pollsters in correctly calling the result of the presidential election.

“Make no mistake, Polymarket single-handedly called the election before anything else,” Shayne Coplan, the company’s chief executive, said on X. “The global truth machine is here, powered by the people.”

While polls based their prediction on voters’ stated intentions, betting markets imply a result based on punters’ bets.

Electoral polls underestimated support for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020, prompting pollsters to tweak their methodology. Ahead of Tuesday’s vote, national aggregate polling averages showed Kamala Harris holding a slight lead over Trump.

Tarek Mansour, chief executive at Kalshi, another betting group, on X summed up the result simply: “Polls 0. Prediction Markets 1.”

“And it wasn’t just last night,” he continued. “Polls were overwhelmingly inaccurate while prediction markets were spot on.”

US small-cap stocks ride biggest daily jump in year to hit 3-year high

US small-cap stocks, which are particularly sensitive to the domestic economic outlook, were on course for their biggest daily jump in a year following Donald Trump’s election victory.

The Russell 2000 was up 4.5 per cent in late-morning trading. That put the measure, which comprises the 2,000 smallest stocks in Wall Street’s Russell index, on course for its biggest one-day rise in 12 months.

Line chart of Russell 2000, points showing US small cap stocks are reapproaching their record high from 2021

Wednesday’s move has propelled the index to its highest level in three years after a run of resilient economic data this year lending credence to the view the US economy could be on course for a so-called soft landing and avoid a recession being triggered by relatively high interest rates.

Trump, in many voters surveys, had been regarded as a better steward of the economy than Kamala Harris.

The Russell 2000 now sits about 3.3 per cent below its record high from November 2021.

US business groups congratulate Trump on election victory

Leading US business groups have congratulated Donald Trump on his election victory, as corporate America prepares for an abrupt policy shift when he returns to the White House. 

The US Chamber of Commerce, the Business Roundtable and the National Association of Manufacturers all said they would work with the incoming Trump administration. 

The manufacturers’ association, which represents 14,000 companies, praised the tax cuts and regulatory actions of his first term in office. 

“We believe that we can build on the successes of our previous work together to roll back burdensome regulations, unleash American energy security, power the economy of the future with an all-of-the-above energy strategy and restore the dignity of manufacturing work,” the NAM said.

Headshot for Janan Ganesh

The Democrats threw away a winnable election

In retrospect, the US election of 2024 was settled on August 12 2020. It was on that day that Joe Biden chose Kamala Harris as his presidential running mate. Given his age, this put her in a strong position to lead the Democrats in the medium term. Expressing doubts about the pick at the time was lonely and thankless work in liberal company. Four years on, perhaps the argument is easier to make.

Harris hasn’t had a bad campaign against Donald Trump. There was no definitive gaffe. Her two big tests — the Democratic convention address and the head-to-head debate — were passed. But she was ambiguous in thought and sometimes mystifying in speech. She was also tied to a radioactively unpopular White House. High inflation is more or less unsurvivable for incumbents. (Ask Rishi Sunak.) This is doubly true when the incumbent chose to spray money around despite warnings that it might push up prices. The Democrats needed a candidate less tainted through association with Biden and Bidenomics.

Read more here

European stocks pare earlier gains as investors digest US election result

European stocks retreated into negative territory in late afternoon trading, as investors’ focus turned to fears of a global trade war and risks for EU exports in the wake of the US election result.

The region-wide Stoxx Europe 600 was trading down 0.6 per cent, having earlier gained as much as 1.9 per cent earlier in the day. 

Carmakers, including German groups BMW and Volkswagen, were among the bottom movers, down 5.6 per cent and 5.3 per cent, respectively.

London’s FTSE 100 shed 0.1 per cent, while Paris’s Cac 40 was down 0.6 per cent. 

Line chart of Share prices rebased showing German carmakers among biggest fallers after US election result

Trump victory opens ‘door for tax cuts’, BlackRock says

BlackRock expects a Donald Trump presidency to open the door for tax cuts and deregulation, with equities boosted by political clarity in the wake of the election. 

Trump will make wide-ranging tariffs an “early priority”, BlackRock Investment Institute, the research arm of the world’s largest asset manager, said on Wednesday, adding that implementation was uncertain.

BII maintained a risk-on view towards US equities. “We see US equities supported by solid economic and corporate earnings growth, political clarity and Federal Reserve rate cuts,” it said. “Longer term, much depends on how much of Trump’s agenda is enacted.” 

Ecuador president says ‘future looks bright for the continent’ after Trump win

Ecuador’s conservative president said the “future looks bright for the continent” as he congratulated Donald Trump on his victory.

“Congratulations to Donald Trump!” Daniel Noboa posted on X on Wednesday morning. “Future looks bright for the continent.”

The US is Ecuador’s biggest trade partner, followed by China. In September, the two countries inked a $25mn security assistance deal as the South American nation struggles to contain a wave of drug-fuelled violence that is driving thousands of Ecuadoreans to migrate to the US.

Noboa, who like Trump was best known as a businessman before entering politics as an outsider, is running for re-election in February. His father, banana magnate Álvaro Noboa, is one of Ecuador’s richest men.

Colombia president calls for ‘end of blockades’ to stem migrant flows as he congratulates Trump win

Colombia’s leftwing president Gustavo Petro said that the “north/south dialogue continues” in a statement congratulating Donald Trump on his election victory, but which also appeared to flag potential disagreements between the two leaders.

“The only way to close borders is with the prosperity of the south and the end of blockades,” wrote Petro, who has repeatedly criticised US sanctions on Cuba and Venezuela, framing them as the principal reason for the economic crises and migrant outflows from the two autocratic countries.

Petro, who was once a member of the M-19 leftist guerrilla group, drew Trump’s ire in October 2020. “Biden is supported by socialist Gustavo Petro, a major LOSER and former M-19 guerrilla leader,” he posted on X at the time.

Americans must accept election result, says Liz Cheney

Liz Cheney had joined Kamala Harris at campaign events © REUTERS

Former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney said Americans were “bound” to accept the results of Tuesday’s election, “whether we like the outcome or not”, as she called on voters to “do everything we can to support and defend our Constitution, preserve the rule of law and ensure that our institutions hold over these coming four years”.

Cheney, a staunch conservative, has emerged in recent years as one of the most prominent Republican critics of Donald Trump. She endorsed Kamala Harris in the election, warning of the “dangers” posed by Trump to US democracy, and joining the Democratic vice-president on the campaign trail.

In a statement on Wednesday, she called on citizens, courts, journalists and government employees to be the “guardrails of democracy”.

Reeves ‘confident’ UK-US trade will continue but prepares for ‘different eventualities’

© House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA Wire

The UK will continue to make the case for free trade following the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency, while preparing for “different eventualities”, chancellor Rachel Reeves has said. 

Asked at the parliamentary Treasury committee on Wednesday whether the potential for higher tariffs would hit the UK’s growth prospects, Reeves said the economic relationship with the US was “absolutely crucial” and that she was “confident those trade flows will continue under the new president”.

“We’re not just a passive actor in this,” she said. “We will make strong representations about the importance of free and open trade.” 

Reeves added: “We will begin those conversations and prepare for different eventualities. I don’t want to sound sanguine, but on the other hand I am optimistic about our ability to shape the global economic agenda.” 

US shares hit record high

Wall Street surged at the open to hit a record high as traders increased bets that Donald Trump’s victory would unleash a wave of tax cuts and deregulation.

The benchmark S&P 500 rose 2.1 per cent to hit 5,905.46, a fresh intraday high. Shares in the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite were up almost 2 per cent. The mid-cap Russell 2000 gained 4 per cent to reach its highest level since 2021. 

Line chart of Indices rebased (% change) showing US stocks surge on Trump victory

Kenya’s Ruto hails Trump’s ‘visionary’ leadership as he congratulates win

Kenya’s president sent his “warmest congratulations” to Donald Trump, describing his leadership as “visionary, bold and innovative”.

William Ruto, one of Kenya’s richest businessmen, is one of the US’s staunchest allies in Africa. Earlier this year, he became the first African leader in 16 years to be received in Washington on a state visit. 

“Your victory is a testament to the firm resolve of the American people to repose confidence in your visionary, bold and innovative leadership,” Ruto said on X.

“We look forward to deepening our collaboration under your leadership as we work together to address global challenges, promote peace and security and foster inclusive economic growth for the benefit of our peoples,” he added.

US shale magnate says Trump’s victory is ‘monumental win’ for oil industry

US shale magnate Harold Hamm said Donald Trump’s victory was a “monumental win” for America’s oil and gas industry and the nation’s energy security.

The Continental Resources founder said defeating Kamala Harris was crucial for the continued health of the sector because her policies would have stifled energy companies — a claim denied by the Biden administration, which oversaw record oil and gas production in the US over the past four years.

Hamm, a pioneer of the shale oil revolution in the US and a big financial donor to Trump, said the president-elect would empower American oil and gas workers to reinforce energy independence for the US and its allies around the world.  

“I couldn’t be more thrilled by president-elect Donald Trump’s victory! This is a monumental win for American energy and the future of our nation’s security,” he said.

Copper prices fall on renewable energy fears

Copper prices fell in the wake of Donald Trump’s election win as traders digested the potential impact on renewable energy.

Copper traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was down almost 5 per cent by early afternoon UK time.

Demand for copper is tied to the pace of the shift towards renewables as it is a key component of cables taking electricity from wind and solar farms to homes and businesses. 

Trump has said he will gut incentives aimed at encouraging the rollout of renewables in the US.

“Copper is caught up in the clean energy trade, which people are reversing out of,” said Colin Hamilton, managing director for commodities research at BMO Capital Markets. “You are seeing a bit of an unwinding.”

Markets update: European markets pare back early moves on threat of trade war

European stocks pared back earlier gains and bonds gained in early afternoon trading, as traders retreated on the threat of a global trade war and risks for EU exports. 

The region-wide Stoxx Europe 600 was trading up 0.3 per cent, having earlier gained as much as 1.9 per cent. 

Yields on rate sensitive two-year German bunds fell 0.1 percentage points to 2.2 per cent, while the 10-year equivalent lost 0.03 percentage points to reach 2.4 per cent. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

US renewables lobby welcomes Trump despite his promise to stop offshore wind

The American Clean Power Association, one of the main lobbies for the US renewables sector, congratulated Donald Trump on his “hard fought victory”, saying it looked forward to working with his administration to unleash “American-made energy”.

The sector is one of the most exposed to a second Trump administration, as the former president has vowed to stop offshore wind projects on “day one”. He has also threatened to terminate the Inflation Reduction Act, President Joe Biden’s landmark law that included tax credits to drive down the cost of renewables.

In a statement on Wednesday, Jason Grumet, ACP chief executive, said domestically produced clean power was vital to meeting the nation’s surging electricity demand.

“Our industry grew by double digits each year under the first Trump Administration and has accelerated this rate of progress since,” he said.

Headshot for Katie Martin

Markets called Trump right — but what do they do now?

Investors called this US election correctly, the result is swift and unambiguous, and it bakes in American exceptionalism. All of that is good news for US stocks. But sliding bonds are an ominous sign of the simmering tension over debt levels that Donald Trump’s victory brings.

Some last-minute doubt and an iffy Iowa opinion poll notwithstanding, for weeks the message from markets had been a clear conviction that the former president would cruise his way back to the White House. 

The evidence for that certainty was dotted in various places around global markets. In the round, Trump’s economic agenda points to tax cuts and continued high spending, plus large tariffs on imports and a squeeze on labour supply through a process one fund manager recently diplomatically described to me as “de-immigration”. All of that is inflationary.

Read more here

German vice-chancellor calls for unity after Trump win

Germany’s teetering three-way coalition government must set aside its differences and act with unity after Donald Trump’s victory, the country’s Green vice-chancellor has said.

Robert Habeck said Germany was not “helpless” and “at the mercy of the world” in the wake of the result. “We just have to be able to act.”

Speaking amid mounting speculation that his government was on the brink of collapse, Habeck said the nation needed a government that could “take seriously and fulfil” its important role in Europe — as well as on issues such as climate change and the war in Ukraine.

“Europe must be able to rely on Germany and Germany must support Europe, speaking with one voice and in unity,” he said.

US markets on track to open sharply higher

US markets were on track to open sharply higher on Wednesday, with certainty around a Donald Trump presidency unleashing a wave of bets on a radical shift in policy during his second term. 

Futures tracking the S&P 500 were up 2.2 per cent ahead of the opening bell in New York, while the Nasdaq 100 was on course to gain 1.6 per cent. 

The dollar had its biggest daily gain since 2016, up 1.9 per cent against a basket of six rival currencies. Bitcoin and other “Trump trades” including Trump Media & Technology Group also surged. 

Gautam Adani lauds Trump’s courage to stay ‘true to his beliefs’

Indian tycoon Gautam Adani heaped praise on Donald Trump’s “unbreakable tenacity” and “unshakeable grit” as he congratulated him on his election win.

The chair of the Adani conglomerate posted on X on Wednesday: “If there is one person on Earth who stands as the embodiment of unbreakable tenacity, unshakeable grit, relentless determination and the courage to stay true to his beliefs, it is Donald Trump.”

He added: “Fascinating to see America’s democracy empower its people and uphold the nation’s founding principles. Congratulations to the 47th POTUS-elect @realDonaldTrump.”

Trump win a ‘real game-changer’ for US banks, Wells Fargo analyst says

Donald Trump’s election win marks a “watershed moment” for the US banking industry and could herald the end of 15 years of tougher post-financial crisis regulation, according to a Wells Fargo analyst.

“This is an inflection point, a real game-changer,” Mike Mayo said. “If I were to anticipate the mantra of the new administration, it’d be ‘resiliency with efficiency’ not just ‘resiliency at any cost’.”

The Wall Street analyst, who is notorious for challenging bank chief executives at shareholder meetings, predicted that banks’ capital requirements would fall and that their supply of loans would rise sharply. 

“This could lead to a boom. But booms tend to be followed by busts,” Mayo added.

German car lobby warns of risk of business relocating to US

The head of Germany’s car lobby warned that Europe risked losing production to the US if Donald Trump followed through on his promise to impose painful tariffs.

Hildegard Müller, president of the Association of the Automotive Industry, told an event in Berlin that improving the continent’s competitiveness was vital in the face of the threat of a 10 per cent tariff on EU exports to the US.

“It is now all the more necessary for us in Germany and Europe to do our own homework, including with regard to the competitiveness of the location,” she said. “Because the pressure to relocate will of course be enormous against this background.”

In 2023, Germany exported 400,000 cars to the US, making it the most important export market for cars produced in Germany.

Brazil’s Lula congratulates Trump despite Harris endorsement

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva congratulated Donald Trump on his election win, days after voicing support for the Republican’s defeated rival Kamala Harris.

“Democracy is the voice of the people and must always be respected,” the leftwing leader of Latin America’s largest nation wrote on X. “The world needs dialogue and joint work to achieve greater peace, development and prosperity. I wish the new government luck and success”.

Lula publicly declared his preference for Harris last week, telling a French TV channel that the Democratic candidate was a “safer” option for “strengthening democracy in the US”.

He was critical of Trump in the interview, referring to the Capitol attack of January 2021. Observers said Lula’s intervention went against a Brazilian diplomatic tradition of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.

Private equity shares surge in pre-market trading as investors bet on return of dealmaking

The stocks of private equity firms Blackstone Group, KKR and Apollo Global soared to new record highs in pre-market trading as investors braced for tax cuts and a revival of dealmaking in the wake of Donald Trump’s win that could propel their profits. 

The three private equity groups saw their shares rise more than 5.5 per cent on Wednesday, pushing their shares to new all-time records.

Firms’ earnings have been curtailed in recent years by a lack of dealmaking that has made it hard to sell investments for a gain and book lucrative performance fees. A more permissive regulatory environment could lay the groundwork for a surge in activity, as well as aid a push to sell funds to individual investors.

Canada-US friendship the ‘envy of the world’, PM Trudeau says

Canada’s leader has congratulated Donald Trump on his election win, describing the country’s relationship with the US as “the envy of the world”.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wrote in a post on X on Wednesday: “The friendship between Canada and the U.S. is the envy of the world. I know President Trump and I will work together to create more opportunity, prosperity, and security for both of our nations.” 

In a later statement, Trudeau hailed the renegotiated Canada-US-Mexico agreement struck under Trump’s previous presidency, “which has created thousands of good-paying jobs and has brought investment and opportunity to our communities”.

New Tory leader raises UK foreign minister’s ‘woman-hating sociopath’ comment about Trump

New Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has asked whether UK foreign secretary David Lammy apologised to Donald Trump in person in September for having called him a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath” in 2018.

In her first appearance at Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, Badenoch congratulated Trump on his “impressive victory”, and accused UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and his senior ministers of engaging in “student politics”.

Starmer said he and Lammy “discussed a number of issues of global significance” when they dined with Trump at Trump Tower in September, adding that it was a “very constructive” meeting — but did not address Lammy’s past remarks directly.

Badenoch’s question drew attention to the awkwardness of Lammy’s previous criticism of Trump, echoed by about a dozen other prominent Labour figures since promoted to the Cabinet.

Taiwanese president confident in partnership with US

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te said he was confident that his country’s long-standing partnership with the US would “continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability”.

Pointing to the “turbulent” global situation, Lai’s office said the new US president “has a particularly important responsibility in the face of increasingly severe global challenges”.

US tariffs to rise to highest levels since early 1970s, says economic advisory firm

Overall US tariffs will rise to the highest levels in half a century even if Donald Trump’s second presidency stops short of across-the-board taxes on imports, Oxford Economics estimates.

The US effective tariff rate is set to increase by 2 percentage points to 5 per cent, the most since the early 1970s, even if the new administration instead targets increases at specific Trump bugbears such as China and Mexico, the advisory firm said.

“The limited Trump scenario assumes president-elect Trump’s calls for across-the-board tariff increases are only a negotiating tactic,” said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics.

“A key assumption is that these tariff increases are implemented at the start of 2026 and phased in over the course of the year,” Sweet added.

Shipping stocks fall as investors weigh impact of Trump win on global trade

Shares in global shipping companies fell on Wednesday as investors took stock of the impact of Donald Trump’s election win on global trade.

Danish group AP Møller-Maersk, the world’s second-largest container shipping group, fell 7.6 per cent in midday trading, while German Hapag-Lloyd dropped 5.8 per cent. 

Fears of a full-blown trade war between the US and China, including higher tariffs that would reduce transportation demand growth next year and onwards, motivated the sell-off, said Petter Haugen, an analyst with ABG Sundal Collier.

Line chart of Share prices rebased in Danish krone terms showing Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd dip on US election result

UAE hails ‘enduring partnership’ with US as leader congratulates Trump

United Arab Emirates leader Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan congratulated President Trump and vice-president JD Vance on their election win.

In a post on X, Sheikh Mohamed emphasised the “enduring partnership” between the US and the UAE, which is one of Washington’s most important allies in the Middle East. 

Underscoring UAE-US economic ties, Sheikh Mohamed added that Abu Dhabi “looks forward to continuing to work with our partners in the US towards a future of opportunity, prosperity, and stability for all”.

Trump win marks ‘most difficult economic moment’ for Germany

Donald Trump’s victory marks “the most difficult economic moment” for Germany, according to the president of a leading economic research institute. 

“Donald Trump’s likely election victory marks the beginning of the most difficult economic moment in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany,” said Moritz Schularick, president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

In addition to the domestic structural crisis, the country now “faces massive foreign trade and security policy challenges for which we are not prepared”, Schularick said, which will put further pressure on growth in Germany and Europe.

He urged countries in the old continent to build a European defence, saying that “it was short-sighted and irresponsible to make German security dependent on swing voters in the US”.

Tariffs not an immediate risk for European stocks, says Barclays

The threat of US tariffs is partly priced into European stocks already and does not pose an immediate risk, according to analysts at Barclays. 

Emmanuel Cau, an analyst at the London-listed bank, said that a Donald Trump victory had been priced in for several months with a rally in equities this morning a reflection of the poll’s clear outcome. 

“In our view, the most positive outcome for US equities is a red sweep, the most negative outcome for EU equities, in relative terms, is Trump and a divided Congress,” Cau said. 

Barclays said any decision on tariffs would require a new government and cabinet in a process that could take upwards of six months and was not an immediate risk. 

Trump policy on vaccines and drug pricing unclear, say pharma chiefs

Pharma executives expressed uncertainty over president-elect Donald Trump’s approach to the industry.

Trump has outlined few details on health policy but has suggested that Robert F Kennedy Jr, a prominent vaccine sceptic, will have a major role in the new administration. 

Asked about this at the FT’s Global Pharma and Biotech summit on Wednesday, Emma Walmsley, chief executive of vaccine maker GSK, said: “The history, science and facts show that apart from clean water there’s been no better healthcare innovation than vaccines.”

In terms of Trump’s potential impact on drug pricing, Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen, chief executive at weight loss drugmaker Novo Nordisk, said “it’s still early days”.

“It’s not clear from campaigning what will be pursued in terms of policies. It’s not something where we are aware of what will happen.”

Trump election will boost big US taxpaying companies, says JPMorgan

JPMorgan analysts expect shares in the biggest US corporate tax-payers to rally over the coming weeks following Donald Trump’s election victory.

Trump’s proposal to cut the corporate rate from 21 per cent to 15 per cent would prove particularly supportive for wireless carriers Verizon and AT&T, payment networks Visa and Mastercard, and media groups Fox and Warner Bros, analysts at America’s biggest bank said in a note to clients on Wednesday.

The so-called Magnificent Seven big tech stocks are “the largest absolute US taxpayers” that will also benefit, the analysts said. They added: “Getting past the election is a risk-on event.”

EU states must deal with Trump’s ‘erratic reflexes’ together, says Juncker

The EU must “respect” Donald Trump and deal with his “erratic reflexes” with a “coherent strategy”, former European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker told the FT on Wednesday.

Juncker, who negotiated trade deals with Trump during his first term in office, said the EU’s member states must not be “divided among themselves”.

“We have to present a coherent strategy, not allowing the US president — as the Chinese and the Russians are doing — to [treat it as] a body composed of 27 different entities,” he said.

He said defence spending would have to rise further but as part of Nato rather than a separate structure.

Javier Milei says Trump can ‘count on Argentina’

Javier Milei, Argentina’s libertarian president, has congratulated Donald Trump on X and promised that he can “count on Argentina”.

Scholz appeals to Trump to work with Europe

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz appealed to Trump not to turn his back on Germany and Europe, saying “we’re better off together”.

In a statement, Scholz said “both sides profit from the transatlantic relationship”, adding that “we can get a lot more done together than against each other”.

Scholz said he had spoken to French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday morning and was meeting EU government chiefs on Thursday to “closely co-ordinate” their response to Trump’s victory. 

His comments illustrate growing concern about what a second Trump presidency could mean for the German economy, particularly the steep tariffs he has threatened to impose on European imports.

Scholz said one of the key messages of Trump’s election victory was that the “EU must stand closely together and be united”. 

Democrats still fighting for control of the House

Democrats are still fighting to capture control of the House of Representatives, as they fend off inroads from Republicans in several crucial states where votes are still being counted.

Nearly 60 races have yet to be called across the country. Republicans have already flipped one seat in Michigan’s 7th district, with Republican Tom Barrett beating Democratic representative Elissa Slotkin.

Republicans have already won control of the Senate. If they retain a majority in the lower chamber of Congress, president-elect Donald Trump will have vastly more leeway to push through his agenda.

Euro down 1.9% after Trump victory

The euro has been viewed as a particular victim of a Donald Trump triumph, given the threat to the Eurozone economy from tariffs.

The euro is down 1.9 per cent against the dollar to $1.072, the worst performer of the G10 currencies today, with some predicting it could get close to parity with the greenback next year.

“It is possible that we could get closer to parity if Trump does follow through [on significant tariffs],” said Lee Hardman, a currency analyst at MUFG.

He also highlighted the potential for what he called a “negative growth shock” to Europe to move interest rates lower relative to the US, further weighing on the euro.

Line chart of  showing Euro badly hit as Trump clinches the White House

Ukraine’s dollar debt rallies as investors bet on boost to future payouts

Ukraine’s US dollar debts rallied on bets that the second presidency of Donald Trump would hasten peace negotiations over Russia’s invasion.

Kyiv restructured more than $20bn of debt at lightning speed this year to finance its war effort by convincing investors to accept reduced payments in the next few years in return for a potential boost in future payouts if growth beats targets in 2028.

These bonds rose by two cents to just below 50 cents on the dollar on Wednesday, bucking a wider sell-off in emerging markets assets.

Buyers are betting that a rapid end to the war would trigger a faster reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy and potentially unlock the higher payouts.

South-east Asian leaders react

South-east Asian leaders have reacted to the election result.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim congratulated Donald Trump on his “remarkable political comeback”.

“As Asean chair in 2025, Malaysia hopes that America will reinvigorate its engagement with south-east Asia. We also urge the US to use its considerable influence to help end the devastating violence and loss of life in Palestine and Ukraine,” he posted on X.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr posted on X: “We look forward to working with President Trump on a wide range of issues that will yield mutual benefits for two nations with deep ties, shared beliefs, a common vision, and a long history of working together.”

Vix drops as investors bet on Trump-fuelled stocks rally

Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge fell on Wednesday as investors increased bets that Donald Trump’s election victory would fuel a rally in US-listed stocks.

Cboe’s Volatility index — commonly known as Vix — dropped 4.75 points to 15.74 ahead of the New York open, reflecting traders’ expectations that US stocks are set to surge following Trump’s win.

The Vix is constructed from the prices of derivatives on the S&P 500 and shows expectations of volatility in the index over the next month. Implied volatility typically falls when stocks rise, and rises sharply when stocks sell off.

Line chart of Vix index showing US stock market volatility plunges

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